Have the effect of ensuring that the exchange rate paid or received will lie within a certain range
When currency is to be paid it involves selling a put with strike K1 and buying a call with strike K2 (with K2>K1)
When currency is to be received it involves buying a put with strike K1 and selling a call with strike K2
Normally the price of the put equals the price of the call
期权性质:期权价格的下限
由以下等价关系得到:c≥(S0e−qT−Ke−rT)+
股票期初价格为S0,股息收益率为q
股票期初价格为S0e−qT,无股息
考虑投资组合A与投资组合B
组合A: 一份欧式看涨期权+数量为Ke−rT的现金
组合B:e−qT股股票,股息被再投资于股票
同理可得看跌期权价格下限:p≥(ke−rT−S0e−qT)+
期权性质:看跌期权-看涨期权平价关系
考虑投资组合A与投资组合C
组合A: 一份欧式看涨期权+数量为Ke−rT的现金
组合C: 一份欧式看跌期权+e−qT股股票,股息被再投资于股票
c+Ke−rT=p+S0e−qT
美式期权 S0e−qT−K≤C−P≤S0−Ke−rT
定价
偏微分方程 ∂t∂f+(r−q)S∂S∂f+21σ2S2∂S2∂2f=rf
定价公式
c=S0e−qTN(d1)−Ke−eTN(d2)
p=Ke−eTN(−d2)−S0e−qTN(−d1)
d1=σTln(S0/K)+(r−q+σ2/2)T,d2=d1−σT
风险中性定价
c=e−rT[F0N(d1)−KN(d2)]
p=e−rT[KN(−d2)−F0N(−d1)]
F0=S0e(r−q)T
期货期权
概念
即期期权(spot options / options on spot)vs期货期权(futures options / options on futures)
期货期权
Referred to by the maturity month of the underlying futures
Usually they are American options
Expires on or a few days before the earliest delivery date of the underlying futures contract
期货期权的特性
When a call futures option is exercised the holder acquires
A long position in the futures
A cash amount equal to the excess of the futures price at the time of the most recent settlement over the strike price
Payoff: (FT−K)+
When a put futures option is exercised the holder acquires
A short position in the futures
A cash amount equal to the excess of the strike price over the futures price at the time of the most recent settlement
Payoff: (K−FT)+
Potential advantages of futures options over spot options
Futures contracts may be easier to trade and more liquid than the underlying asset
Exercise of option does not lead to delivery of underlying asset
Futures options and futures usually trade on same exchange
Futures options may entail lower transactions costs
期权性质:看跌期权-看涨期权平价关系
欧式期货期权
European futures options and European spot options are equivalent when futures contract matures at the same time as the option
It is common to regard European spot options as European futures options when they are valued
考虑投资组合A与投资组合B
组合A: 一份欧式看涨期权+数量为Ke−rT的现金
组合B: 一份欧式看跌期权+一份期货多头+数量为F0e−rT的现金
c+Ke−rT=p+F0e−rT
美式期权 F0e−rT−K≤C−P≤F0−Ke−rT
期权性质:期权价格的下限
由看跌期权-看涨期权平价关系:c+Ke−rT=p+F0e−rT
看涨期权:c≥F0e−rT−Ke−rT⟹c≥((F0−K)e−rT)+
看跌期权:p≥Ke−rT−F0e−rT⟹c≥((K−F0)e−rT)+
美式期权
看涨期权:C≥(F0−K)+
看跌期权:P≥(K−F0)+
定价:二叉树
与即期期权二叉树类似,但期初期货合约价格为0
Growth Rates For Futures Prices
A futures contract requires no initial investment
In a risk-neutral world the expected return should be zero
The expected growth rate of the futures price is therefore zero
The futures price can therefore be treated like a stock paying a dividend yield of r
p=u−d1−d
定价:Black's Model
期货合约价值的漂移率
风险中性:e−riΔtE^[FiΔt−F0]=0,∀i=1,2,…,N
漂移率为0:E^[FT]=F0,∀T
F服从的随机微分方程:dF=σFdz
偏微分方程 ∂t∂f+21∂F2∂2fσ2F2=rf
Black's Model
c=e−rT[F0N(d1)−KN(d2)]
p=e−rT[KN(−d2)−F0N(−d1)]
d1=σTln(F0/K)+σ2T/2,d2=d1−σT
Application of Black's Model
Black's model is frequently used to value European options on the spot price of an asset
This avoids the need to estimate income on the asset
期权定价的应用
Estimating Default Probability
The Merton Model
The Merton (1974) model views equity as akin to a call option on the assets of the firm, with an exercise price given by the face value of debt
Consider a firm with total value V that has one bond due in one period with face value K
equity can be viewed as a call option on the firm value with strike price equal to the face value of debt ST=max(VT−K,0)
the current stock price embodies a forecast of default probability in the same way that an option embodies a forecast of being exercised
corporate debt can be viewed as risk-free debt minus a put option on the firm value BT=VT−ST=min(VT,K)=K−max(K−VT,0)
Pricing Equity and Debt
Firm value follows the geometric Brownian motion dV=μVdt+σvdz
The value of firm can be decompose in to the value of equity (S) and the value of debt (B). The corporate bond price is obtained as B=F(V,t),F(V,T)=min(V,BF),BF=K
The equity value is S=f(V,t),f(V,T)=max(V−BF,0)
Stock Valuation S=Call=VN(d1)−Ke−rτN(d2)
where d1=στln(V/Ke−rτ)+2στ,d2=d1−στ
Firm Volatility σV=(1/Δ)σS(S/V)
Bond Valuation B=Risk-free bond−Put⟹B/Ke−rτ=N(d2)+(V/Ke−rτ)N(−d2)
the KMV approach: the company sells expected default frequencies (EDFs) for global firms
Advantages
it relies on the price of equities, which are more actively traded than bonds
correlations between equity prices can generate correlations between bonds
it generates movements in EDFs that seems to lead changes in credit ratings
Disadvantages
it can not be used to price sovereign credit risk
it relies on a static model of the firm's capital and risk structure
management could undertake new projects that increases not only the value if equity but also its volatility
the model fails to explain the magnitude of credit spreads we observe on credit-sensitive bonds
A Detailed Example
Real Options
An Alternative to the NPV Rule for Capital Investments
Define stochastic processes for the key underlying variables and use risk-neutral valuation
This approach (known as the real options approach) is likely to do a better job at valuing growth options, abandonment options, etc than NPV
The Problem with using NPV to Value Options
Consider the example from Chapter 13: risk-free rate =4%; strike price = $21
Suppose that the expected return required by investors in the real world on the stock is 16%. What discount rate should we use to value an option with strike price $21?
Correct Discount Rates are Counter-Intuitive
Correct discount rate for a call option is 42.6%
cu=$1, cd=$0, c=$0.663, p∗=0.7041 if required expected return is 16%
0.633er×0.25=1×0.7041⟹r=42.58%
Correct discount rate for a put option is –52.5%
General Approach to Valuation
Assuming
The market price of risk for a variable θ is λ=σμ−r
Suppose that a real asset depends on several variables θi,(i=1,2,…). Let mi and si be the expected growth rate and volatility of θi so that dθi/θi=midt+sidzi
We can value any asset dependent on a variable θ by
Reducing the expected growth rate of θ by λs where λ is the market price of θ-risk and s is the volatility of θ
Assuming that all investors are risk-neutral
Example (36.1)
The cost of renting commercial real estate in a certain city is quoted as the amount that would be paid per square foot per year in a new 5-year rental agreement. The current cost is $30 per square foot. The expected growth rate of the cost is 12% per annum, the volatility of the cost is 20% per annum, and its market price of risk is 0.3. A company has the opportunity to pay $1 million now for the option to rent 100,000 square feet at $35 per square foot for a 5-year period starting in 2 years. The risk-free rate is 5% per annum (assumed constant).
How to evaluate the option?
Example (36.1)
Define V as the quoted cost per square foot of office space in 2 years. Assume that rent is paid annually in advance. The payoff from the option is
100,000Amax(V−35,0)
where A is an annuity factor given by
A=1+i=1∑41×e−0.05×i=4.5355
The expected payoff in a risk-neutral world is therefore
According to the Black-Scholes formula, the value of the option is
453,550[E^[V]N(d1)−35N(d2)]
where
d1=0.22ln[E^(V)/35]+0.22×2/2
and
d2=0.22ln[E^(V)/35]−0.22×2/2
The expected growth rate in the cost of commercial real estate in a risk-neutral world is m−λs, where m is the real-world growth rate, s is the volatility, and λ is the market price of risk. In this case, m=0.12, s=0.2, and λ=0.3, so that the expected risk-neutral growth rate is 0.06, or 6%, per year. It follows that E^[V]=30e0.06×2=33.82. Substituting this in the expression above gives the expected payoff in a risk-neutral world as $1.5015 million. Discounting at the risk-free rate the value of the option is 1.5015e−0.05×2=$1.3586 million.
This shows that it is worth paying $1 million for the option.
Extension to Many Underlying Variables
When there are several underlying variables qi we reduce the growth rate of each one by its market price of risk times its volatility and then behave as though the world is risk-neutral
Note that the variables do not have to be prices of traded securities
Estimating the Market Price of Risk
Contimuous CAPM: μ−r=σmρσ(μm−r)
According to the previous slides: μ−r=λσ
The market price of risk: λ=σmρ(μm−r)
Types of Options
Abandonment
Expansion
Contraction
Option to defer
Option to extend life
Example (Business Snapshot 36.1)
Example (page 795)
A company has to decide whether to invest $15 million to obtain 6 million units of a commodity at the - rate of 2 million units per year for three years.
The fixed operating costs are $6 million per year and the variable costs are $17 per unit.
The spot price of the commodity is $20 per unit and 1, 2, and 3-year futures prices are $22, $23, and $24, respectively.
The risk-free rate is 10% per annum for all maturities.
The Process for the Commodity Price
We assume that this is dln(S)=[θ(t)−aln(S)]dt+σdz
where a=0.1 and σ=0.2
We build a tree as in Chapter 32 (Interest Rate Tree) and Chapter 35 (Energy and Commodity Derivatives)
Estimating the Market Price of Risk Using CAPM (equation 36.2, page 792)
Node
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
pu
0.1667
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.8867
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.0867
pm
0.6666
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
pd
0.1667
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.0867
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.8867
Valuation of Base Project; Fig 36.2
Node
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
pu
0.1667
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.8867
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.0867
pm
0.6666
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
pd
0.1667
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.0867
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.8867
Valuation of Option to Abandon; Fig 36.3(No Salvage Value; No Further Payments)
Node
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
pu
0.1667
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.8867
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.0867
pm
0.6666
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
pd
0.1667
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.0867
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.8867
Value of Expansion Option; Fig 36.4 (Company Can Increase Scale of Project by 20% for $2 million)
Node
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
pu
0.1667
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.8867
0.1217
0.1667
0.2217
0.0867
pm
0.6666
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
0.6566
0.6666
0.6566
0.0266
pd
0.1667
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.0867
0.2217
0.1667
0.1217
0.8867
Appendix: Interest Rate Tree
Interest Rate Trees vs Stock Price Trees
The variable at each node in an interest rate tree is the Δt-period rate
Interest rate trees work similarly to stock price trees except that the discount rate used varies from node to node
Two-Step Tree Example
Payoff after 2 years is max[100(r−0.11),0], pu=0.25; pm=0.5; pd=0.25; Time step=1yr
B: (0.25×3+0.50×1+0.25×0)e−0.12×1
A: (0.25×1.11+0.50×0.23+0.25×0)e−0.10×1
Alternative Branching Processes in a Trinomial Tree
Procedure for Building Tree
dr=[θ(t)−ar]dt+σdz
[1] Assume θ(t)=0 and r(0)=0
[2] Draw a trinomial tree for r to match the mean and standard deviation of the process for r
[3] Determine θ(t) one step at a time so that the tree matches the initial term structure
Example
Suppose that σ=0.01, a=0.1, and Δt=1yr. The zero-rate curve is given below.
Maturity
Zero Rate
0.5
3.430
1.0
3.824
1.5
4.183
2.0
4.512
2.5
4.812
3.0
5.086
Building the First Tree for the Δt rate R
Set vertical spacing: ΔR=σ3Δt
Change branching when jmax nodes from middle where jmax is smallest integer greater than 0.184/(aΔt)
Choose probabilities on branches so that mean change in R is −aRΔt and S.D. of change is σΔt
The First Tree
Shifting Notes
Work forward through tree
Remember Qij the value of a derivative providing a $1 payoff at node j at time iΔt
Shift nodes at time iΔt by αi so that the (i+1)Δt bond is correctly priced
The Final Tree
Formulas for α's and Q's}\footnotesize
To express the approach more formally, suppose that the Qi,j have been determined for i≤m(m>0). The next step is to determine αm so that the tree correctly prices a zero-coupon bond maturing at (m+1)Δt. The interest rate at node (m,j) is αm+jΔR,so that the price of a zero-coupon bond maturing at time (m+1)Δt is given by Pm+1=j=−nm∑nmQm,jexp[−(αm+jΔR)]Δt
where nm is the number of nodes on each side of the central node at time mΔt. The solution to this equation is αm=Δtln∑j=−nmnmQm,je−jΔRΔt−lnPm+1
Once αm has been determined, the Qi,j for i=m+1 can be calculated using Qm+1,j=k∑Qm,kq(k,j)exp[−(αm+kΔR)Δt]
where q(k,j) is the probability of moving from node (m,k) to node (m+1,j) and the summation is taken over all values of k for which this is nonzero.
Exotics
Types of Exotics
Packages
Barrier options
Perpetual American calls and puts
Binary options
Nonstandard American options
Lookback options
Gap options
Shout options
Forward start options
Asian options
Cliquet options
Options to exchange one asset for another
Compound options
Options involving several assets
Chooser options
Volatility and Variance swaps
Packages
Portfolios of standard options
Examples from Chapter 11: bull spreads, bear spreads, straddles, etc
Often structured to have zero cost
One popular package is a range forward contract (see Chapter 17)
Perpetual American Options
Consider first a derivative that pays off Q when S=H for the first time and S0<H
f=Q(S/H)α(α>0) satisfies the boundary conditions. It satisfies the differential equation ∂t∂f+(r−q)S∂S∂f+21σ2S2∂S2∂2f=rf
when (r−q)α+21α(1−α)σ2=r
This has solutions α1>0 and α2<0
The value of the derivative is therefore Q(S/H)α1
Consider next a perpetual American call option with strike price K
If it is exercised when S=H the value is (H−K)(S/H)α1
This is maximized when H=Kα1/(α1−1)
The value of the perpetual call is therefore α1−1K(α1α1−1KS)α1
The value of a perpetual put is similarly α2−1K(α2α2−1KS)−α2
Non-Standard American Options (page 598)
Exercisable only on specific dates (Bermudans)
Early exercise allowed during only part of life (initial ``lock out'' period)
Strike price changes over the life (warrants, convertibles)
Gap Options
Gap call pays ST−K1 when ST>K2
Gap put pays off K1−ST when ST<K2
Can be valued with a small modification to BSM Gap call=S0N(d1)−K1N(d2) Gap put=K1e−rTN(−d2)−S0e−qTN(−d1) d1=σTln(S0/K2)+(r−q+σ2/2)T d2=d1−σT
Forward Start Options (page 600)
Option starts at a future time, T1
Implicit in employee stock option plans
Often structured so that strike price equals asset price at time T1
Value is then e−qT1 times the value of similar option starting today
Cliquet Option
A series of call or put options with rules determining how the strike price is determined
For example, a cliquet might consist of 20 at-the-money three-month options. The total life would then be five years
When one option expires a new similar at-the-money is comes into existence
Compound Option (page 600-601)
Option to buy or sell an option
Call on call
Put on call
Call on put
Put on put
Can be valued analytically
Price is quite low compared with a regular option
Chooser Option ``As You Like It'' (page 601-602)
Option starts at time 0, matures at T2
At T1 (0<T1<T2) buyer chooses whether it is a put or call
This is a package!
At time T1 the value is max(c,p). From put-call parity p=c+e−r(T2−T1)K−S1e−q(T2−T1)
The value at time T1 is therefore c+e−q(T2−T1)max(0,Ke−(r−q)(T2−T1)−S1)
This is a call maturing at time T2 plus a position in a put maturing at time T1.
Barrier Options (page 602-604)
Option comes into existence only if stock price hits barrier before option maturity
"In" options
Option dies if stock price hits barrier before option maturity
Cash-or-nothing: pays Q if ST>K, otherwise pays nothing.
Value=e−rTQN(d2)
Asset-or-nothing: pays ST if ST>K, otherwise pays nothing.
Value=S0e−qTQN(d1)
Decomposition of a Call Option
Long: Asset-or-Nothing option
Short: Cash-or-Nothing option where payoff is K
Value=S0e−qTQN(d1)−e−rTKN(d2)
Lookback Options (page 605-607)
Floating lookback call pays ST–Smin at time T (Allows buyer to buy stock at lowest observed price in some interval of time)
Floating lookback put pays Smax–ST at time T (Allows buyer to sell stock at highest observed price in some interval of time)
Fixed lookback call pays max(Smax−K,0)
Fixed lookback put pays max(K−Smin,0)
Analytic valuation for all types
Shout Options (page 607)
Buyer can `shout' once during option life
Final payoff is either
Usual option payoff, max(ST–K,0), or
Intrinsic value at time of shout, Sτ–K
Payoff: max(ST–Sτ,0)+Sτ–K
Similar to lookback option but cheaper
Asian Options (page 608-609)
Payoff related to average stock price
Average Price options pay:
Call: max(Save−K,0)
Put: max(K−Save,0)
Average Strike options pay:
Call: max(ST−Save,0)
Put: max(Save−ST,0)
No exact analytic valuation
Can be approximately valued by assuming that the average stock price is lognormally distributed
Exchange Options (page 609-610)
Option to exchange one asset for another
For example, an option to exchange one unit of U for one unit of V
Payoff is max(VT–UT,0)
Basket Options (page 610-611)
A basket option is an option to buy or sell a portfolio of assets
This can be valued by calculating the first two moments of the value of the basket at option maturity and then assuming it is lognormal
Volatility and Variance Swaps
Volatility swap is agreement to exchange the realized volatility between time 0 and time T for a prespecified fixed volatility with both being multiplied by a prespecified principal
Variance swap is agreement to exchange the realized variance rate between time 0 and time T for a prespecified fixed variance rate with both being multiplied by a prespecified principal
Daily return is assumed to be zero in calculating the volatility or variance rate
Variance Swap
The (risk-neutral) expected variance rate between times 0 and T can be calculated from the prices of European call and put options with different strikes and maturity T
For any value of S∗ E^(Vˉ)=T2lnS∗F0−T2[S∗F0−1]+T2∫K=0S∗K21erTp(K)dK+T2∫K=S∗∞∗K21erTc(K)dK
Volatility Swap
For a volatility swap it is necessary to use the approximate relation E^(σˉ)=E^(Vˉ){1−81[E^(Vˉ)2var(Vˉ)]}
VIX Index (page 613-614)
The expected value of the variance of the S&P 500 over 30 days is calculated from the CBOE market prices of European put and call options on the S&P 500 using the expression for E^(Vˉ)
This is then multiplied by 365/30 and the VIX index is set equal to the square root of the result
How Difficult is it to Hedge Exotic Options?
In some cases exotic options are easier to hedge than the corresponding vanilla options (e.g., Asian options)
In other cases they are more difficult to hedge (e.g., barrier options)
This involves approximately replicating an exotic option with a portfolio of vanilla options
Underlying principle: if we match the value of an exotic option on some boundary , we have matched it at all interior points of the boundary
Static options replication can be contrasted with dynamic options replication where we have to trade continuously to match the option
Example
A 9-month up-and-out call option an a non-dividend paying stock where S0=50, K=50, the barrier is 60, r=10%, and s=30%
Any boundary can be chosen but the natural one is
c(S,0.75)=max(S−50,0) when S<60
c(60,t)=0 when 0≤t≤0.75
We might try to match the following points on the boundary
c(S,0.75)=max(S−50,0) for S<60
c(60,0.50)=0
c(60,0.25)=0
c(60,0.00)=0
We can do this as follows:
+1.00 call with maturity 0.75 & strike 50
–2.66 call with maturity 0.75 & strike 60
+0.97 call with maturity 0.50 & strike 60
+0.28 call with maturity 0.25 & strike 60
This portfolio is worth 0.73 at time zero compared with 0.31 for the up-and out option
As we use more options the value of the replicating portfolio converges to the value of the exotic option
For example, with 18 points matched on the horizontal boundary the value of the replicating portfolio reduces to 0.38; with 100 points being matched it reduces to 0.32
Using Static Options Replication
To hedge an exotic option we short the portfolio that replicates the boundary conditions
The portfolio must be unwound when any part of the boundary is reached