区块链技术及其金融应用

文献与应用

吴克坤

区块链经济的的七大设计原则

原则 待解决的问题 突破性进展 影响
网络化诚信 “双花” 区块链共识机制 去中心化身份、去担保化、信任网络
分布式力量 (中心化机构)滥用数据、篡改数据 去中心化 消除商业和社会治理中的信任危机
把价值作为激励 传统互联网价值分配不公 区块奖励 通证经济
安全性 数字隐私、黑客攻击 非对称加密技术 区块链安全、透明
隐私 个人数据容易被其他机构“监控”、收集 非许可、匿名 阻止了“监控社会”
权利保护 传统互联网“中介机构”可能侵害参与者权益、维权成本高 区块链确权、智能合约——代码即法律 目标决定、执行过程、奖励机制透明化
普惠性 使用传统商业服务的成本 降低成本和许可要求 终结霸权、实现普惠

区块链的金融应用

八个核心功能 {ignore}

FUNCTION BLOCKCHAIN IMPACT STAKEHOLDER
1. Authenticating Identity and Value Verifiable and robust identities, cryptographically secured Rating agencies, consumer data analytics, marketing, retail banking, wholesale banking, payment card networks, regulators
2. Moving Value—make a payment, transfer money, and purchase goods and services Transfer of value in very large and very small increments without intermediary will dramatically reduce cost and speed of payments Retail banking, wholesale banking, payment card networks, money transfer services, telecommunications, regulators
3. Storing Value—currencies, commodities, and financial assets are stores of value. Safety deposit box, a savings account, or a checking account. Money market funds or Treasury bills Payment mechanismcombined with a reliable and safe store of value reduces need for typical financial services; bank savings and checking accounts will become obsolete Retail banking, brokerages, investment banking, asset management, telecommunications, regulators
4. Lending Value—credit card debt, mortgages, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, government bonds, asset-backed securities, and other forms of credit Debt can be issued, traded, and settled on the blockchain; increases efficiency, reduces friction, improves systemic risk. Consumers can use reputation to access loans from peers; significant for the world’s unbanked and for entrepreneurs Wholesale, commercial, and retail banking, public finance (i.e., government finance), microlending, crowdfunding, regulators, credit rating agencies, credit score software companies
5. Exchanging Value—speculating, hedging, and arbitraging. Matching orders, clearing trades, collateral management and valuation, settlement and custody Blockchain takes settlement times on all transactions from days and weeks to minutes and seconds. This speed and efficiency also creates opportunities for unbanked and underbanked to participate in wealth creation Investment, wholesale banking, foreign exchange traders, hedge funds, pension funds, retail brokerage, clearinghouses, stock, futures, commodities exchanges; commodities brokerages, central banks, regulators
6. Funding and Investing in an Asset,Company, Start-up—capital appreciation, dividends, interest, rents, or some combination New models for peer-to-peer financing, recording of corporate actions such as dividends paid automatically through smart contracts. Titles registry to automate claims to rental income and other forms of yield Investment banking, venture capital, legal, audit, property management, stock exchanges, crowdfunding, regulators
7. Insuring Value and Managing Risk—protect assets, homes, lives, health, business property, and business practices, derivative products Using reputationalsystems, insurers will better estimate actuarial risk, creating decentralized markets for insurance. More transparent derivatives Insurance, risk management, wholesale banking, brokerage, clearinghouses, regulators
8. Accounting for Value—new corporate governance Distributed ledger will make audit and financial reporting real time, responsive, and transparent, will dramatically improve capacity of regulators to scrutinize financial actions within a corporation Audit, asset management, shareholder watchdogs, regulators

区块链相关研究

Do Fundamentals Drive Cryptocurrency Prices?

Two Types of Cryptocurrencies

  • Mineable cryptocurrencies are rewards to solving a cryptographic algorithm via a process known as mining

  • The distribution and creation of non-mineable cryptocurrencies (NMCs) is decided ex-ante and is generally based on the protocol of their founders.

  • This paper focus on mineable cryptocurrencies

Two Important Factors

  • Computing Power

    • 它促进了交易的快速和安全记录
    • 以hash rate来衡量
    • 与矿工在区块链中创建块所消耗的资源直接相关
  • Network

    • 网络测量每天在区块链上交易加密货币的唯一地址的数量
    • 大量的区块链用户也暗示了各自加密货币的流动性增强
    • 大型网络吸引了开发人员为该加密货币的区块链构建应用程序,从而提高了该货币的可用性。

假设

  • 在单个加密货币水平上,加密货币价格应该平均来说与计算能力和网络大小有正的相关关系
  • 在加密货币市场层面上,我们研究了区块链基本面的总体衡量指标是否捕获了系统风险的来源

变量

price Average of daily log prices over the 7-day period ending on Friday. The daily price is the fixed closing price at midnight UTC of the current day denominated in U.S. dollars. The daily prices are from Coinmetrics.io’s fixing/reference rate service.
CP Average of daily log hashrate over the 7-day period ending on Friday. The daily hasharate is the mean difficulty of finding a new block multiplied by the number of blocks mined on that day. For example, if 100 blocks of Bitcoin were mined on a particular day and each block required an average of 5 TH to mine, the computing power value would be 500 × 1012 hashes.
NET Average of daily log unique active addresses over the 7-day period ending on Friday. The daily addresses are the sum of unique addresses that were active in the network (either as a recipient or originator of a ledger change) that day. Unique active addresses are the number of addresses from (or to) which transactions are conducted on the cryptocurrency’s respective blockchain. Network data for Monero are not available.

Computing Power

Network

Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency (JF2022)

Cross-Sectional Factors

  • Size Factor Returns
  • Momentum Factor Returns
  • Volume Factor Returns
  • Volatility Factor Returns

Cryptocurrency Factors

  • Cryptocurrency One-Factor Model
  • Cryptocurrency Market and Size Factor Model
  • Cryptocurrency Market and Momentum Factor Model
  • Cryptocurrency Three-Factor Model

Do investor sentiments drive cryptocurrency prices? (Economics Letters 2021)

Is Bitcoin Really Untetherd?

  • Two main alternative hypotheses for Tether
    • Tether is “pulled” (demand-driven): Tether is driven by legitimate demand from investors who use Tether as a medium of exchange to enter their fiat capital into the cryptospace because it is digital currency with the stability of the dollar “peg.” In this case, the price impact of Tether reflects natural market demand.
    • Tether is “pushed” (supply-driven) : Bitfinex prints Tether regardless of the demand from cash investors, and additional supply of Tether can create inflation in the price of Bitcoin that is not due to a genuine capital flow.
  • Motivations for "push"
    • The Tether creators, like most early cryptocurrency adopters and exchanges, have large holdings of Bitcoin, they generally profit from the inflation of the cryptocurrency prices.
    • Coordinated supply of Tether creates an opportunity to manipulate cryptocurrencies—when prices are falling, the Tether creators can convert their large Tether supply into Bitcoin in a way that pushes Bitcoin up and then sell some Bitcoin back into dollars in a venue with less price impact to replenish Tether reserves.
    • If cryptocurrency prices crash, the founders essentially have a put option to default on redeeming Tether, or to potentially experience a “hack” or insufficient reserves where by Tether-related dollars disappear.

Figure 1 Aggregate flow of Tether between major addresses.

  • Main Hypotheses:
    • H1A:Tether's price relative to the USD may increase as a consequence of strong investor demand. Tether flows should be strongly related to this demand as proxied by changes in the Tether-USD exchange rate.
    • H1B:The printing of Tether may also be driven by its usefulness as a facilitator of cross-exchange arbitrage to eliminate pricing discrepancies across cryptocurrency exchanges. For example, Tether outflows from Bitfinex to another exchange should correspond to periods when Bitcoin sells at a premium on Bitfinex relative to that exchange.
  • To examine the “push” hypothesis, the authors test the following predictions:
    • H2A:If Tether issuers are trying to provide stability to the market during downturns, outflows of Tether and purchases of Bitcoin by Bitfinex may follow periods of negative Bitcoin returns.
    • H2B:If Tether supply is large enough to have a material price impact on Bitcoin, Bitcoin prices should go up after Tether flows into the market, especially after periods with large authorization of Tether.
    • H2C:Bitcoin returns may show a return reversal after negative returns, especially during times when Tether flows into the market.
  • H2D:Since round-number thresholds can be price anchors to set a price floor and are often used as buying signals by investors, flow of Tether might increase if Bitcoin falls below these salient round-number thresholds. This effect should be more pronounced in periods with large Tether authorization.
  • H2E:If Tether is not fully backed by dollars at the outset, but the issuers want to signal otherwise to investors by releasing EOM (or other interval) accounting statements, then Tether creators may liquidate Bitcoins into USD to demonstrate sufficient reserves. This could create negative returns in Bitcoin at the EOM, particularly in periods with large Tether issuances.

Figure 5 Prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies around high-flow events.

  • Panel A shows Bitcoin prices three hours before and after the top 1% of high-flow hours to Poloniex and Bittrex. Prices are scaled to one at time −3 before the event and at time 0 at the end of the event window. Scaled prices are averaged across events. High-flow events are defined as the top 1% of hours with high net average flows of Tether from Bitfinex to Poloniex and Bittrex and Bitcoin back from Poloniex and Bittrex to Bitfinex in the prior hour, which means that high flows occur between time −1 and time 0.
  • Panel B depicts similar results for other major cryptocurrencies.

比特币的问题:非法交易

Foley, Sean, Jonathan R. Karlsen, and Tālis J. Putniņš. "Sex, drugs, and bitcoin: How much illegal activity is financed through cryptocurrencies?." The Review of Financial Studies 32.5 (2019): 1798-1853.

  • 方法
    • 识别非法用户的样本
      • First approach: 执法部门没收的比特币
      • Second approach: 非法“暗网市场”及其用户
      • Third approach: “暗网”论坛识别的用户
    • 量化和描述所有非法活动
      • Method 1: Network cluster analysis (smart local moving algorithm, SLM)
      • Method 2: Detection-controlled estimation (DCE)
  • 发现
    • 大约每年有760亿美元的非法活动涉及比特币(占据比特币交易的46%)
    • 接近美国和欧洲的非法毒品市场的规模
  • Results: How much illegal activity involves bitcoin?
  • 结果:非法活动如何随时间变化?
  • Results: How does illegal activity vary through time?

比特币的问题:有限接受

Hinzen, Franz J., Kose John, and Fahad Saleh. "Bitcoin’s limited adoption problem." Journal of Financial Economics 144.2 (2022): 347-369.

比特币的问题:扩容


Malik, Nikhil, et al. "Why Bitcoin will Fail to Scale?." Management Science (2022).

  • 扩容问题
    • 比特币吞吐量受到其区块容量的限制
    • 每10分钟确认约2200笔交易
    • BTC社区正在考虑增加区块容量
    • 论文证明它不起作用
  • 方法
    • 分析矿工和用户策略互动的博弈论模型
  • 结果
    • 吞吐量拥堵的缓解有利于大矿工默契串通
      • 通过战略性部分填充区块来人为地降低实际吞吐量,以获得更高的交易费用
    • 技术干预(例如禁止大型矿商)
      • 可以消除串通
      • 使系统不太安全

比特币的问题:去中心化交易结算

Csóka, Péter, and P. Jean-Jacques Herings. "Decentralized clearing in financial networks." Management Science 64.10 (2018): 4681-4699.

Chiu, Jonathan, and Thorsten V. Koeppl. "Blockchain-based settlement for asset trading." The Review of Financial Studies 32.5 (2019): 1716-1753.

  • 当记账单位足够小,所有去中心化清算流程本质上都会产生相同的价值股权作为集中清算程序。
  • 从政策含义来看,没有必要同时收集和处理所有代理的所有敏感数据并运行集中清算程序。

  • 更大的交易量、更高的时间紧迫性和更低的违约风险使得区块链上的结算更具吸引力。

larger trading volume, higher time criticality, and lower default exposure make
settlement on a blockchain more attractive.


[22] Cheng, Stephanie F., et al. "Riding the blockchain mania: Public firms’ speculative 8-K disclosures." Management Science 65.12 (2019): 5901-5913.

区块链应用案例

  • 四位同学未提交选题:雷博文、郑蓬勃、吴燕、张智伦

  • 其他同学的选题

姓名 选题
赵旭 基于区块链技术的区块链游戏模式—以Big Time为例
郑嘉琪 基于区块链技术的供应链金融模式创新——以VoneCredit为例
李柏蓉 基于区块链技术的供应链融资研究——以微企链为例
黄依雯 区块链在供应链金融中的应用-以联易融为例
张冬雪 区块链赋能供应链金融——以京东数科供应链金融平台为例
李梦婷 基于区块链技术的企业“应收款链平台”——以浙商银行为例
贾钧惠 区块链技术在供应链金融中应用的效果研究—以比亚迪为例
张玉婷 基于区块链技术的电子发票管理——以深圳市为例
黄潇楠 区块链赋能供应链金融:以平安银行“平安好链”为例
韩晓美 区块链技术的应用—以海尔集团为例
陈曾江 区块链技术下的供应链金融模式一以蚂蚁集团为例
孙雯雯 基于区块链技术的证券公司内部控制研究——以海通证券为例
尚心悦 “区块链数字仓单平台”在仓单质押融资中的应用——以中化能源科技为例
文婉玢 基于区块链技术的大湾区跨境支付结算系统
杨辰雨 区块链DAO项目案例分析
杨哲 区块链技术在供应链金融的应用—以中国平安壹企链为例
涂美琪 区块链技术的应用一以供链融通平台为例
闫亚赛 区块链技术赋能供应链金融—以国家电网能源服务平台为例
张海业 区块链技术与供应链金融——以工商银行供应链金融为例
李志鹏 基于区块链技术的供应链金融—以中企云链为例
胡龙 DC/EP 的发行对我国货币供给的影响
冉旭蕾 区块链技术在金融领域的应用-以汇丰银行为例
朱晓洁 基于区块链技术的供应链金融-以布比区块链为例
赵元睿 区块链在数字货币体系建设中的应用—以央行数字票据交易平台为例
曹满青 区块链技术在食品供应链中的应用分析---以沃尔玛为例
吴姝霖 区块链技术在供应链金融中的应用——以VoneCredit平台为例
徐飞 区块链技术在版权保护领域的应用——以艺术作品市场为例
唐金丹 区块链技术对民营企业融资风险控制的研究——以苏宁集团为例
贾雨川 智能合约在保险理赔流程中的应用案例分析——以Etherisc和AXA Fizzy项目为例
沈世奎 区块链视角下物流企业供应链金融风险评价研究—以怡亚通为例
李宇杰 区块链技术在跨境支付中的应用 — 以Ripple为例的案例分析
邱耀标 区块链技术在金融领域的应用——以“金综链”为例
朱菲燕 区块链技术在碳交易中的应用——以广碳所碳中和登记系统为例
严锋 基于全球区块链的农产品价值链——旨在促进贸易和可持续的健康生活及全民食品安全
史茗夫 智能区块链助力绿色金融发展:基于缓解“漂绿”困局的视角
石沛尧 促进还是抑制?企业区块链要素利用水平对盈余管理的影响研究
姜新宇 区块链赋能下的砀山梨供应链透明化与可追溯性研究
王柏澄 区块链技术对上市企业价值的影响研究
张鑫禹 证券发行数字化的区块链框架:以绿色债券为例
姚兴平 区块链技术在供应链金融ABS领域的研究—以度小满为例
王鑫龙 区块链技术在公共资源交易领域的应用探索
姚洪坷 区块链技术对房地产领域的影响与展望
汪俊杰 基于区块链技术的数据资产证券化路径研究
杨文清 基于区块链技术的公益捐款与项目资金透明化研究